Can Tottenham qualify for the Champions League this season? Yes, it is realistic, but only if we are honest that it would be an overachievement rather than the minimum, and that it depends on what happens around them as much as what Roberto De Zerbi‘s side do themselves.
The table at the international break makes it look a long way off. Tottenham are 11th with 12 points from ten games, ten behind second-placed Brighton and four behind Chelsea in fifth. This is a club that finished 17th last season and was winless and bottom after six games of this one.
And yet the gap is not the whole story. The top of this league has one clear leader and then a pack that nobody should be scared of, and Spurs have one thing on their side that the clubs playing in Europe don’t.
Where Tottenham stand in the Champions League race
Here is the top half after ten games, with Spurs in it.
| Pos | Club | Played | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | -1 | 12 |
Four points is one good week. Ten points is half a season of being better than someone. That is the honest split: Chelsea, Everton and the clubs in seventh to tenth are catchable, while Arsenal, Brighton and Manchester City are a different conversation.
It is worth remembering where this started. Vinai Venkatesham has already said out loud that the club’s ambition is to win the Premier League and the Champions League, as we covered when the chief executive admitted Spurs had drawn up a relegation plan last season. Nobody expects that this season, but almost £400million of summer spending buys you the right to be judged against the top five, not the bottom five.
Which of the clubs above them can Spurs actually catch?
Arsenal: out of sight
Nine wins from ten and 27 points. Arsenal don’t blow teams away, but they control every part of a game and give opponents nothing, and that is exactly the model De Zerbi is chasing. Finishing above them is not a realistic target this season.
Brighton: the surprise package
Brighton have the best goal difference in the league at +19, and their start has put them in a huge position. The question is whether they can keep it up once the fixtures come thick and fast in December. A ten-point gap is big, though, and we wouldn’t plan a season around them collapsing.
Liverpool: short of control, still strong
Liverpool are fourth on 18 points. They have looked loose at times, but the quality in their forward line is too good to bet against, and we expect them to end up in the top three.
Chelsea: the one to target
This is the race that matters. Chelsea are fifth on 16 points and have not convinced, while Spurs already went to Stamford Bridge and won 2-0. The two sides have almost opposite problems: Chelsea need defensive help, Tottenham need goals. Whoever fixes their weakness better in January probably finishes higher.
Is Manchester City’s case the wild card?
Manchester City sit third on 21 points, but they were found guilty of almost all of the 115 Premier League charges in September, and no sanction has been announced yet. City have said they will appeal.
If a points deduction lands this season, everything below Arsenal shuffles up and an extra Champions League place opens for the chasing pack. Nobody at Spurs should be planning around it, but it is the single biggest reason why a top-five finish is a more realistic target now than the table suggests.
No Europe is Tottenham’s big advantage
Finishing 17th last season had one upside: Spurs have no European football to juggle. While clubs in Europe are playing twice a week through the winter, De Zerbi gets a full week on the training pitch before almost every league game.
That matters more for this squad than most, because the problem so far hasn’t been ideas. When Spurs are on it, they play some of the best football in the league. The problem has been what happens when the other side won’t let them have the ball, which is what the 1-0 defeat at Leeds exposed. Daniel Farke’s side went over the press, won the second balls, and the game management from the bench didn’t fix it. A free week to work on exactly that is worth a lot.
What has to change for a top-five finish?
Goals from the forwards
Ten goals in ten games is not Champions League form. The big summer hope was Omar Marmoush, and he has one goal so far. Some of that is about where he has been asked to play, but his first touch and decision-making have been poor wherever he has lined up. Whether it is confidence or something more, Spurs need him in shooting positions far more often, or they need January help up front.
James Maddison staying on the pitch
When he is fit, Maddison may still be Tottenham’s best player. He has only started a couple of league games this season, though, and he is still finding his way back after the ACL injury. A push for the top five needs him available for runs of five or six games, not one game at a time.
A left-back they can rely on
Destiny Udogie is the same story. He missed pre-season, played ten minutes against Coventry and then sat out the next two games. Andy Robertson has covered well, but he is not the long-term answer. If Udogie can’t string games together by January, Spurs have to look at the position.
Our verdict: top seven is the floor, top five is the target
Looking only at this squad, ignoring the last two seasons, Spurs should finish in the top seven at the very least. Champions League football would be a real overachievement for a side that was 17th in May, and it should be celebrated as one if it happens.
But it is not a fantasy. There is no standout team below Arsenal, Chelsea are there to be caught, City’s case could open another door, and Spurs have no Europe and a full week to prepare for almost every game. We are ten games into a new project, and De Zerbi’s sides tend to get better as the season goes on. If the goals come, this is a realistic target, not a dream.
