Three Premier League wins in a row and the same question is everywhere around N17: are Spurs back? Our answer is “backish”. The feeling is back, the football is back, but a top-five finish is a December question, not a November one.
It is easy to forget how this season started. Tottenham went their first six league games without a win, finishing that run with a draw at Old Trafford. Then came a 3-1 win over Coventry City, a 2-0 win and a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge, then a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, and suddenly the table looks very different.
Spurs are ninth on 12 points after nine games. That is three points behind Liverpool in fifth and four behind Chelsea in fourth. Nobody in that pack is running away with anything.
Are Tottenham back, or is it too soon to say?
There is a fair case for caution. Palace lost Jean-Philippe Mateta to a red card inside 13 minutes, so Spurs played most of last Saturday’s game against ten men, and any honest look at the win has to carry that asterisk. Three games is also a small sample. When Spurs weren’t winning, the line from fans was “it’s only one game”, then “it’s only two games”. The same logic has to work the other way.
For a lot of supporters, “back” means one thing: top-four contenders again, the side that challenged under Harry Redknapp and Mauricio Pochettino and reached semi-finals and finals. By that measure, nobody can say it yet.
But there is another way to judge it, and we think it matters more right now. Do fans look forward to the next game with anticipation rather than dread? Is there a connection between the stands, the players and the head coach? Is this a team playing the kind of football a Tottenham side should play? On all three, the answer is yes.
What has changed under De Zerbi?
Our view is that the performances haven’t changed as much as the results. Spurs were playing decent football in the weeks they were dropping points. The difference now is that they are getting the reward for good work on the training ground, and the rub of the green that was missing in September and early October.
Roberto De Zerbi has ironed out a few problems, and you can see players getting fitter and sharper. Mohammed Kudus, James Maddison, Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali all look better versions of themselves than they did a month ago. Mathys Tel is improving, and Andy Robertson has looked much more settled at left-back in the last few games.
The atmosphere has followed. Home games feel like a club pulling in the same direction again, and the away end at Chelsea and Manchester United was loud for the right reasons. After the miserable stretch Spurs fans have sat through, with the Europa League win the obvious exception, that matters.
Is the attack still the weak spot?
Yes, and this is where the “not back yet” camp has a point. The midfield and defence are clicking. The front line is still not sharp or ruthless enough to carry a top-five push on its own, and we looked at that in detail when we explained the catch in the striker numbers behind the three-game revival.
There are signs of the forwards doing more than they were. But at some point a run of tight games will need someone to score when Spurs aren’t on top, and that is where this side will be tested hardest.
Can Spurs finish in the top five?
Look at the top of the table and the picture is clearer than the gap suggests. Arsenal are top on 24 points and Manchester City second on 21. Whatever comes of the charges hanging over City, those two look out of reach.
Brighton are third on 19 and playing very well. History says clubs of that size can fade when the business end arrives, though, and nobody should assume they will stay there. Liverpool have the attackers to recover, but they are fifth on 15 with a mixed record so far. Chelsea are fourth on 16, and they were beaten 2-0 by Spurs at their own ground last month. Aston Villa, level with Spurs on 12, have been up and down all season.
So beyond Arsenal and City, there is no side in the race that Tottenham have no chance of finishing above. Top five is up for grabs, and top six looks a very fair target.
Why one game a week could matter in winter
There is one advantage that hasn’t shown up yet. Spurs are only playing once a week, with nothing but Premier League games on their fixture list through to the new year. Liverpool, for one, are juggling the Champions League as well.
That benefit doesn’t count for much in early November. It counts for a lot in late November, December and January, when squads get stretched and legs get heavy. If De Zerbi keeps his first-choice side fresh while rivals rotate, that is where a few points could swing.
Why December decides it
The next few weeks look kind on paper. Leeds United away on Saturday at 12.30pm is the last game before the international break, and as we said in our Leeds vs Tottenham preview, a fourth straight league win is there to be taken. After that come Ipswich Town, Sunderland and Fulham, a run we covered in our look at the four games before the north London derby.
Then it gets serious. Arsenal come to N17 in early December, Spurs go to Liverpool the week before Christmas, Brighton visit after Boxing Day and Manchester City are away early in January. That stretch will tell us far more than three wins in October and November ever could.
Verdict: Spurs are backish, and that’s fine
We are not going to call Champions League football after three wins from a team that was near the bottom a month ago. But we are not going to pretend this is the same Spurs either.
The honest position is that Tottenham have turned a corner and are heading the right way. Enjoy it. Win at Elland Road, keep winning through November, and then the conversation about the top five, and about what De Zerbi needs in January, becomes a serious one. Ask us again after Manchester City away.
