Tottenham vs Crystal Palace is the game that tells us whether the win at Chelsea was a turning point or just a very good night.
Three games ago the Lilywhites were bottom of the table without a league win. Seven points from nine later, they sit 12th after only a second-ever Premier League win at Stamford Bridge, and the mood around N17 has changed completely.
But momentum is cheap until it survives a home game against a side you are supposed to beat. Saturday at 17:30 GMT at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is exactly that, and the way Roberto De Zerbi‘s side win matters almost as much as the win itself.
Why is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace a bigger test than Chelsea?
At Stamford Bridge nobody expected Spurs to dominate, and the underdog’s job is simpler: stay in the game and take a moment. That is more or less what happened. Our report from Stamford Bridge covers the details, but the game was settled by a Mike Penders own goal and a brilliant solo finish from Mathys Tel.
Against Palace the script flips. Spurs are the team expected to control the ball, break down a low or open block and make the chances count. That is a different skill, and it is the one De Zerbi’s project is built on.
Can Tottenham keep winning without a moment of magic?
A side cannot count on a long-range strike or an own goal every week. The Coventry win was more of a team effort, with James Maddison, Omar Marmoush and Ben Davies sharing the goals in a 3-1 victory, and that is the template to repeat. Multiple goals from patient build-up play would tell us far more than a 1-0 scraped through on a single swing of the boot.
That is why the result alone is not the whole story. A win is a win, and the habit of winning has been missing for a long time, but performances are what predict the next month. Spurs need both.
How bad is the Crystal Palace defence going into Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Pretty bad. According to reports, Palace sit 17th and have shipped 19 goals in eight league games, the worst defensive record in the division. A heavy 5-0 defeat at Brighton was followed by a 2-0 loss to Newcastle that brought boos at Selhurst Park.
That means chances should come. If Spurs are as good as the last fortnight suggests, they should be creating them in volume, and a flat, low-chance home game would be a worrying sign about how this team breaks down opponents who actually defend.
What happens if Pierre Sage is fighting for his job?
Reports say Palace head coach Pierre Sage has been given a little more time, but that a defeat at Tottenham could put his job in danger. That cuts both ways. A manager with nothing to lose can change shape, go more direct or gamble on a counter-attack, and wounded teams are rarely predictable. Crystal Palace may well be a tougher opponent than their league position suggests.
Who will De Zerbi pick against Crystal Palace?
De Zerbi is expected to make around three changes, and Maddison is a doubt after going off early in the second half at Chelsea. Nobody will be able to predict the XI with confidence, because the head coach has rarely named the same side twice.
That is not necessarily a problem. After the draw at Old Trafford, the win over Coventry and the victory at Chelsea, the players who have come in have looked like they understand their jobs. When changes do not disrupt the shape, it suggests the work on the training ground is landing, and that matters in a season where Spurs spent a reported £300m-plus on new signings and had to get them working together quickly.
Where does the number ten role go if Maddison misses out?
If Maddison is ruled out, the choice is between a more creative option and a more energetic one. Marmoush behind the striker would give extra quality on the ball, while Conor Gallagher would offer the legs and pressing that Palace’s back line may not like. Either way, the midfield partnership of Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali that impressed at Stamford Bridge looks the sensible base. Fernandes called Marbella the change point and the pair have the chance to prove it at home.
Is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace the start of a run?
Tonali said after the Coventry win that “we haven’t achieved anything yet”, and he is right. Back-to-back league wins mean little if the home game that follows is a flat 0-0. De Zerbi spoke about a “big, big meeting” that changed the group, and the proof of a changed group is consistency.
Three wins in a row would drag Spurs towards the top half and give N17 something it has not had for a long time: a proper winning habit at home.
Author opinion
My view is that Spurs should win this, and win it with a few goals. Palace are leaky and wobbling, and the home crowd will arrive in a far better mood than for a long while. What I want to see is not a solo wonder strike but a Tottenham side that carves a back line open repeatedly and finishes its dinner. If that happens, the Chelsea win was not a one-off, it was the start of something.
